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Coffee price today May 28, 2021: Simultaneously increased, domestic exceeded the mark of VND 33000 per kg in Vietnam.
The price of coffee today May 28, 2021, in the range of 32200 – 33100 VND per kg in Vietnam. Yesterday was the session to close the trading position book that showed the impact of the USD (DXY) index on the world coffee price is very clear.
In Vietnam’s central highland, Di Linh, Lam Ha, and Bao Loc districts (Lam Dong), the price of coffee today is purchased at 32200 VND per kg.
In Cu M’gar district (Dak Lak), the price of coffee today is 33100 VND per kg.
The price of coffee today in Kon Tum province is purchased at 32900 VND per kg. This morning, the domestic price of coffee increased by an average of 200 to 300 VND per kg.
At the end of the latest trading session, the price of Robusta coffee in London delivered in September 2021 increased by 8 USD per ton at 1,512 USD per ton, delivered in November 2021 increased by 8 USD per ton at 1,529 USD per ton. Meanwhile, on the New York Stock Exchange, the price of Arabica coffee delivered in July 2021 increased by 1.5 cents per lb at 150.5 cents per lb, delivered in September 2021 increased by 1.45 cents per lb at 152.45 cents per lb.
Yesterday was the closing session of business positions, showing that the impact of the USD index (DXY) on world coffee prices is very clear. The DXY index sometimes dropped to its lowest level in nearly 5 months. Speculators carrying USD sold strongly due to inflation concerns.
Recently, many coffee-consuming countries in Europe and the US have lifted their blockade orders, cafes, hotels, and restaurants … have reopened after a large proportion of people there were vaccinated. expand vaccines against Covid-19. Despite the expectation that consumption demand will gradually increase thanks to the removal of distance orders from consuming countries, Vietnam’s coffee exports have not been able to go free because the business world has not been able to bear the high prices.
Congestion in transportation to bring goods out of the country has slowed down the market, delayed new sales contracts, and prices were not released.
Importers still keep a large number of goods in stock, capital and credit have dried up so they can’t buy as usual, while the rainy season has started, farmers are in need of cash to buy fertilizers and pay for maintenance. garden squirrel.
According to Helena., JSC, there are only 4 months left until the end of the 2020-2021 crop year. It seems that the domestic and export coffee markets can only function smoothly when there is a new price with the acceptance of the new tariff by the importers. If the freight rate does not decrease drastically, it is difficult for Vietnam’s export coffee to be paid at a higher price than the listed price of the Robusta derivatives like a few months ago.
July arabica coffee (KCN21) on Tuesday closed up +1.50 (+1.01%), and July ICE Robusta coffee (RMN21) closed up +10 (+0.68%).
Coffee prices on Tuesday posted moderate gains on the outlook for smaller Brazil coffee production. Brazil’s crop agency Conab on Tuesday projected that 2021 Brazil coffee production would fall -23% y/y to a 4-year low of 48.8 mln bags. Conab said coffee output would fall since Brazil’s coffee trees are in the lower-yielding half of a biennial cycle and since insufficient rain in key stages of crop development exacerbated a decline in yields. Gains in coffee were limited as Conab raised its 2021 Brazil arabica coffee production estimate to 33.4 mln bags from a Jan estimate of 31.3 mln bags. Also, Conab raised its 2021 Brazil robusta coffee production estimate to a record 15.4 mln bags from a Jan estimate of 14.8 mln bags.
A negative factor for coffee is an easing of drought concerns with the outlook for rain in Brazil’s coffee-growing areas. Somar Meteorologia forecast 20 mm of rain for Brazil’s coffee-growing areas this week with rainfall amounts of 20-40 mm in Minas Gerais through June 2.
Abundant coffee supplies are negative for coffee prices as ICE coffee inventories have been trending higher over the past seven months. ICE arabica coffee inventories on Monday rose to a 14-month high of 2.068 mln bags, recovering further from the 21-year low of 1.096 mln bags posted on October 5. ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories last Thursday climbed to a 3-3/4 year high of 16,017 lots, rebounding from the 2-year low of 10,808 lots posted on October 14. Also, ICO reported May 11 that Oct-Mar global coffee exports were up +3.5% y/y at 65.4 mln bags.
Coffee prices found support last Thursday after Safras cut its Brazil 2021/22 coffee production estimate to 56.5 mln bags from a previous estimate of 57.1 mln bags. Also, the Green Coffee Association (GCA) reported last Monday that U.S. Apr green coffee inventories fell -11.6% y/y to 5,62,567 bags.
On May 6, arabica posted a 4-1/4 year nearest-futures high, and robusta posted an 8-month high on concern about smaller future global coffee supplies. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) on May 6 cut its 2020/21 global coffee production estimate to 169.633 mln bags from a previous estimate of 171.896 mln bags and cut its global 2020/21 coffee surplus estimate to +3.286 mln bags from a prior forecast of +5.258 mln bags.
Coffee prices have support from the outlook for increased demand as a faster pace of Covid vaccinations allows more restaurants and coffee shops to reopen throughout the world.
Robusta coffee prices have support from smaller robusta supplies from Vietnam after Vietnam’s General Statistics Office reported Vietnam’s Jan-Apr coffee exports fell -17.6% y/y to 563,000 MT. Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta beans.
I’m Edison Friedell from Helena., JSC.
Edison Friedell adapted the report for Coffee import & export news at Helena., JSC. Rich Asplund was the editor.
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